2026 Precious Metals Outlook Report

Global Political Tensions Polish Precious Metals

New Records Ahead for Gold and Silver

After closing last year at historic highs, gold and silver prices are expected to set new records in 2026. The “2026 Precious Metals Outlook” report prepared by Troy Precious Metals Trading Inc. highlights that in recent years, political and geopolitical risks—rather than traditional economic indicators—have become the dominant drivers of precious metal prices. The report states that gold is expected to test $5,500 per ounce and silver $110 per ounce in 2026.

Troy Precious Metals Trading Inc., one of Turkey’s leading companies in precious metals trading, has published its “2026 Precious Metals Outlook” report. The report emphasizes that in an environment where global political rhetoric and actions have hardened, geopolitical risks have intensified, and trade and security concerns have regained prominence, precious metals are likely to remain investors’ preferred assets—as they were in the previous year. Given that it includes price expectations for precious metals, the report is closely followed by investors. It notes that gold, which closed 2025 at $4,313 per ounce with a 64% annual increase, is expected to test $5,500 per ounce in 2026. Meanwhile, silver, which ended 2025 at $71.08 per ounce after a 146% surge, is projected to reach as high as $110 per ounce during the year.

Pricing Driven More by Geopolitics Than Economics

According to the report, 2025 was a year in which rising global political risks, shifting trade dynamics, and uncertainties in monetary policy—particularly in the United States—pushed investors toward safe-haven assets, leading precious metals to decouple noticeably from other financial instruments. The report underscores that in recent years, asset pricing has been shaped more by geopolitical and political risks than by traditional economic indicators, a trend expected to strengthen further in 2026.

The report states: “Trade wars, sanctions threats, strategic moves regarding access to energy and raw materials, increasing political pressure on central banks, and conflicts fueled by global bloc formation are rapidly elevating risk perceptions. U.S. actions toward Venezuela and its direct influence on energy markets demonstrate that geopolitics is no longer confined to security issues but has become a structural determinant of commodity and energy pricing. Similarly, the renewed strategic debate over Greenland highlights how alliances may shift toward a more assertive stance centered on sovereignty and resource security.”

The report also notes that China has accelerated efforts to reduce external dependence, moving toward a more closed and controlled model in energy, mining, and reserve management. When considering the ongoing Israel–Gaza tensions in the Middle East, energy security risks in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, and the continuing impact of the Russia–Ukraine war, the report concludes that global risk perceptions will remain elevated throughout 2026. It states that “in 2026, precious metals are expected to remain investors’ favorites in an environment marked by harsher global political rhetoric, rising geopolitical risks, and the renewed prominence of trade and security issues—likely trading above 2025 levels.” Additionally, it highlights that “rather than the speed of price increases, maintaining achieved levels may become the defining feature of the year.”

Gold Could Test $5,500 in 2026

The report emphasizes that gold continues to serve as a natural reference point in times of global uncertainty. High debt levels, shrinking room for maneuver in monetary policy, and the increasingly politicized nature of financial decision-making are strengthening gold’s role in investment portfolios. Central banks’ ongoing reserve diversification efforts, coupled with persistently high geopolitical risks, are seen as sustaining structural demand for gold.

The report states: “In this context, we expect 2026 to be a year in which gold tests new highs and consolidates those levels. Gold could rise to $5,500 per ounce during the year and is projected to close 2026 around $5,200 per ounce.”

Dual Demand to Drive Silver to New Records

The report highlights that silver pricing is more sensitive to physical market dynamics than technical indicators. Silver’s dual role—as both a safe-haven asset in times of uncertainty and a critical input for industrial production, energy transition, and electrification—supports its structural appeal. China’s more restrictive approach to strategic raw materials, including state-directed production, exports, and stockpile management, has reduced flexibility in global supply chains.

The report suggests that new highs in silver prices are possible in 2026, supported by expectations that the gold/silver ratio could fall below 50. Silver is projected to reach up to $110 per ounce during the year and to close 2026 around $100 per ounce.

Supply Constraints Support Platinum’s Upside

On the platinum side, the report underscores ongoing structural vulnerabilities in supply. As most global platinum production is concentrated in South Africa, high operating costs, energy disruptions, and operational challenges limit the ability to increase output in the short term. Consequently, even modest increases in demand can have a pronounced impact on prices.

The report expects platinum to remain resilient in 2026, supported by steady industrial demand and relative cost-performance considerations within the platinum group metals. It forecasts that platinum, which ended 2025 at $2,054.55 per ounce after a 127% increase, could reach $3,000 per ounce in 2026 and close the year around $2,750 per ounce.

Demand Constraints Limit Palladium’s Upside

The report notes that palladium’s heavy reliance on the automotive sector makes it more vulnerable to structural shifts. The growing share of electric vehicles and the substitution of palladium with alternative metals in catalytic technologies point to a structural softening in demand. However, since a significant portion of supply originates from Russia, palladium remains sensitive to geopolitical developments.