THE MARKET IS MOVING AWAY FROM OLD CYCLES: WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW?
They say it takes 21 days to change a habit. When we look at the recent movements in precious metals, we can see that we passed those 21 days long ago. The market is not only getting used to a new order; it is starting to make this order its new norm. And now it is no longer easy to explain the agenda with only daily news flow, because every move seems to be part of a bigger transformation. The data released in the U.S. is of course important—especially because it increases expectations for a possible rate cut at this week’s Fed meeting. But this is not the full picture. The momentum in the market is going beyond the cycles we are used to.
Gold has been forming a new balance zone around $4,100–4,200 for weeks; it is almost as if the market has started to accept this level as the “new normal.” Against this backdrop, Silver reached a new all-time high on Friday at $59.33. The price curve is becoming steeper. This rise is not just a price movement; it shows that investors’ approach to silver is changing. The fear of “missing the rally” is very strong. In both silver and platinum-palladium, supply is struggling, investment demand is strengthening, and U.S. policies are increasing this fragility even more. All these factors draw the same frame: the “traditional pricing regime” is shifting.
At this point, a simple but critical question comes to mind: Are these days the early signals of 2026? Or, after a fast climb, are we heading toward a natural pause and a short correction? Because the global outlook supports both possibilities. On one hand, central banks are increasing their purchases and the geo-economic shift between China and the U.S. continues. On the other hand, investors are choosing gold and silver more heavily through ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds). At the same time, charts are starting to show “overextended” signals, volatility is rising independently of news, and the market is reacting very quickly. This is why we now need to look not only at the numbers, but also at the change behind the numbers. As we move toward 2026, questions are increasing, and the answers are hidden in the market itself. Whatever happens, it seems no longer possible to act with old assumptions.
Therefore, making strong predictions for the new year does not look very realistic.