GOLD’S SILENT WATCH
The market appears calmer for now; however, with Hormuz, oil and the Fed all on the table at the same time, this calm does not inspire much confidence. In the latest pricing, gold is trading at USD 4,587/oz, down 0.57%; silver is at USD 74.63/oz, down 0.89%; platinum is at USD 1,964/oz, down 1.21%; while palladium is at USD 1,498/oz, declining by 1.87%.
The Fed kept its policy rate unchanged last week, in line with expectations. Although the possibility of diplomacy is being discussed on the U.S.–Iran front, the Strait of Hormuz issue is not yet closed. The U.S. statement that it would support the passage of neutral vessels gave the market some short-term relief, but even the slightest disruption on the ground could disturb the entire balance again through energy prices.
Gold is no longer viewed only as a short-term safe haven. It is increasingly seen as a portfolio-balancing asset against currency and financial system-related risks. Therefore, today’s decline can be read more as a short-term position adjustment than a break in the broader picture. For silver, the picture is more debatable. As prices remain elevated, demand in some industrial segments may slow down. However, this does not mean that silver is standing on weak ground. The physical market remains tight. Declining inventories, demand from China, and investments in solar energy and technology remain the key factors supporting silver.
On the platinum and palladium side, despite today’s decline, the supply theme remains strong. The outlook for palladium is more pressured. However, supply and trade restrictions related to Russia prevent palladium from being completely overlooked as a metal.
Precious metals are falling today, but the reason behind this decline is not that “global risks have eased and there is no longer a need for safe havens.” What is happening is this: in the short term, the market sees faster return opportunities in other asset classes such as equities, the dollar, bond yields or crypto. Therefore, investors are temporarily moving away from safe havens such as gold and silver and shifting toward assets that appear riskier or more attractive in terms of return. In other words, the decline is not due to the complete disappearance of safe-haven demand. It is more about a temporary rotation of capital into other areas, something we see from time to time. This is an important distinction. If market stress re-emerges through geopolitical risk, war-related headlines, Fed uncertainty, a sudden and sharp move in the dollar or U.S. Treasury yields that disrupts risk sentiment, or equity market sell-offs, investors may quickly return to safe-haven assets.